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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231619
SWODY1
SPC AC 231618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST THU MAR 23 2006

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH STRONG VORT MAX MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS AR.  LARGE/DRY SURFACE RIDGE AND NORTHERLY COMPONENT
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SUPPRESS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
REGIONS.  THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.  

...SOUTH FL...
WEAK SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...AND
WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FL TODAY.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ISOLATED
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FL
COAST NEAR MIA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS
REGION SHOW THAT THE MID LEVEL INVERSION INDICATED ON 12Z RAOBS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT OCCUR.  THUS...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR MAY DEVELOP...ENHANCING THE RISK OF ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

..HART/GRAMS.. 03/23/2006