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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 240044
SWODY1
SPC AC 240043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CST THU MAR 23 2006

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN FL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS FL SUGGESTS WEAK SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH DECAYING MCS AND NUMEROUS
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS NEWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPMENT IS
ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE NCNTRL GULF COAST. AS THE LOW
MOVES NEWD AND DEEPENS EAST OF GA/SC THROUGH TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS FL AND INTO THE FL STRAITS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

PLUME OF MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED NEWD FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS SRN FL TONIGHT ON DEEP
WSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...
AND LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT...COULD STILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD STILL OCCUR GIVEN
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...RECENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAKENING LAPSE RATES AND
DIURNAL COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 03/24/2006