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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231257
SWODY1
SPC AC 231256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST THU MAR 23 2006

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE GULF STATES TODAY...REACHING THE
SE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY.  CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OFF THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE W.

...S FL TODAY...
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WAKE OF A PREVIOUS SYSTEM HAS STALLED INVOF
THE FL STRAITS...WITH ELY FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE KEYS AND S FL.  CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS THE NW GULF AND ABOUT 100 MI WNW OF EYW NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.  SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY REACH THE W COAST OF
FL LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH THE STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH
WEAKER AFTER MOVING E OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE ERN GULF.

12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
F...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR
/AROUND 6 C/KM/...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER WEAK ACROSS S FL.  WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY SOME
MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON /NAMELY INVOF WEAK
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG SE FL COAST/...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 03/23/2006