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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 210054
SWODY1
SPC AC 210052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN GA
AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN KS...NE OK
AND FAR WRN AR...

...SRN AL/SRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WHICH IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NEWD 
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT
MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS AL...GA AND
FL PANHANDLE. LOCAL WSR-88D VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW VERY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 75 TO 85 KT.
IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF 60-65 F AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS AS THE
LINE MOVES EWD INTO SW GA AND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. WIND DAMAGE
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE
LINE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY
TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT
TO BECOME MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...SE OK/FAR WRN AR...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DRY SLOT PUNCHING NEWD INTO SE OK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND ERN OK DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ALOFT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER-LOW AND MAY AFFECT SRN KS AND NW AR THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. DECREASING
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID DECREASE OF THE SEVERE THREAT
IN THE 03Z TO 05Z TIMEFRAME.

..BROYLES.. 03/21/2006