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Severe Weather Outlook Day 1 SWODY1 at goshenarc.org
Tue Mar 21 12:55:22 UTC 2006


ACUS01 KWNS 211256
SWODY1
SPC AC 211254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST TUE MAR 21 2006

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
N FL AND S GA....

...N FL/S GA AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL MOVE
EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG A
COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF OF SC/NC.  THE OCCLUDED LOW IN NE AR
WILL GRADUALLY FILL TODAY WHILE MOVING EWD...AS WILL A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW ALONG AN E-W FRONT ACROSS S GA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS S GA AND
SC.  THE 12Z TLH SOUNDING REVEALS A MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS N FL
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG/ AND STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND AT LEAST ONE STORM HAS DISPLAYED SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING W OF TLH. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO ACROSS N FL/S GA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. 
THEREAFTER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN AND
THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD DECREASE.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 03/21/2006








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