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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 191955
SWODY1
SPC AC 191954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX...

...TX...
H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA APPEARS TO ALREADY BE AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTN.  ELEVATED TSTMS
 HAVE BEEN INTENSIFYING FROM THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF SW TX NEWD
INTO NRN TX.  THIS MAY BE THE START OF A PROLONGED SEVERE EVENT
ACROSS MAINLY CNTRL/NRN TX THAT WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE WMFNT FROM JUST S OF KFST TO KAUS-KHOU-
KMSY.  BINOVC OCCURRING N OF THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL TX MAY ALLOW THE
FRONT TO JUMP NWD BY THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF KJCT.  S OF THE
FRONT...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...BUT SFC BASED PARCELS
WERE CAPPED.  SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT SPREAD EWD UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT.  BUT...WEAK ASCENT TIED TO JETLETS EJECTING NEWD FROM
MEXICO...HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT/HIGHER SW TX
TERRAIN WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE SFC-BASED TSTMS MID-LATE AFTN FROM THE
SRN TRANSPECOS NEWD TOWARD CNTRL TX.  OTHERWISE...ELEVATED STORMS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN TX INTO OK THROUGH THE EVE.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  INITIAL
SFC-BASED STORMS ACROSS SWRN TX MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
TORNADO OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
N TX WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

OVERNIGHT...ALL SHORT TERM MODELS HINT THAT A SECONDARY JET STREAK
WILL DEVELOP FROM CNTRL MEXICO NEWD INTO SCNTRL TX.  THIS MAY
AUGMENT SRN EDGE OF TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL TX AND A SEVERE MCS MAY
EVOLVE ALONG/S OF THE WMFNT INTO ECNTRL TX N OF THE HOUSTON AREA BY
12Z MON.  IF THIS INDEED OCCURS...INCREASING RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS STORM MODES
TRANSITION INTO LINEAR MIXED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

...SRN HI PLAINS...
H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEGINS TO BODILY EJECT ENEWD INTO THE
SRN HI PLAINS THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGEST LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS NRN NM...SRN CO AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS. 
SELY FLOW EAST OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS ADVECTED MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MSTR NEWD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PRODUCE ISOLD
LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTN/EVE GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS LATER TONIGHT AS
STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES.  THESE LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY BECOME
ELEVATED AND MOVE EWD INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS BY 12Z WITH PERHAPS HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

..RACY.. 03/19/2006