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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 191622
SWODY1
SPC AC 191620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...WITH MOIST PLUME OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS TX.  SEVERAL EMBEDDED FEATURES IN THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY1 PERIOD.  SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS MAIN SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT
INTO REGION.

...TX...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NORTH OF DRT TO NEAR AUS. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH
OF THIS FRONT ARE TRANSPORTING RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL TX
/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT VERY SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TODAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THIS REGION.  SCATTERED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT...CONTRIBUTING TO
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  NORTH OF BOUNDARY...DEEP
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT HEATING AND PRECLUDE
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY PERSIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.  MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST OF MAF INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SURFACE-BASED AND
SUPERCELLULAR. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING
IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW 
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
DEVELOP NORTHWARD AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX AS
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TO THE WEST.

...SERN CO/ERN NM/TX PNHDL...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDS
FROM NEAR ROW TO EAST OF RTN.  CLEARING SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION FROM
SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHEAST NM.  VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN MAY HELP INITIATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA.  DESPITE WEAK CAPE...HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.  ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN
TX PANHANDLE BEFORE WEAKENING.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 03/19/2006