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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 160057
SWODY1
SPC AC 160055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PATTERN IS EVIDENT ACROSS MOST
OF CONUS.  WRN STATES SYNOPTIC RIDGING INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE WITH
NWD EXTENT ...THROUGH NRN ROCKIES AND INTO W-CENTRAL CANADA.  STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW JUST OFFSHORE WA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NEWD...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH NOW EVIDENT AROUND 135W-140W.  MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH
-- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES --
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- ANALYZED ATTM BETWEEN MCK-HLC -- IS FCST
TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS LNK AREA OVERNIGHT.  ISOLATED/BRIEF THUNDER
EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT N OF SFC LOW IN ELEVATED WAA CONVEYOR. 
HOWEVER...WHILE THIS WILL REMAIN A STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL
PERTURBATION...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING WILL PRECLUDE GEN TSTM
AREA.

...SRN/ERN TX TO WRN/NRN LA...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX
IN REGIME OF ELEVATED MOISTENING AND WAA.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH END OF PERIOD AS SEGMENTS OF
MARGINALLY MOIST AIR IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS ARE LIFTED TO LFC. 
MUCAPES SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 500 J/KG AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ENEWD
ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SE TX THIS EVENING.  RELATIVELY STABLE/LOW-THETAE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
REMAINDER PERIOD.  LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ABOVE THIS LAYER
ARE FCST TO VEER -- SHUNTING FAVORABLE/ELEVATED RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
ENEWD AND NEWD ACROSS E TX AND LA.

...COASTAL PACIFIC NW...
BAND OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY
...WITH EMBEDDED TCU AND SHALLOW CB...NOW MOVING ASHORE WA AND NWRN
ORE.  ONCE THIS MOVE INLAND OVER COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER....DURING
NEXT 3-4 HOURS...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SET IN AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
SHOULD DIMINISH.  THEN...TOWARD 16/12Z...ANOTHER AREA OF MAXIMIZED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL APCH
COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH NOW AROUND 135W-140W.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/16/2006