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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150041
SWODY1
SPC AC 150040

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING
/02-03Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL CA.  THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL
MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.  DESPITE A COLD SURFACE AIR
MASS...COLD UPPER TROUGH /500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB -30 C/ TRANSLATING
EWD ACROSS CA INTO NV OVERNIGHT WILL MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT OVER CA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
300 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE 
NRN SIERRA MOUNTAINS...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM
WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL CA THIS EVENING.  LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THIS SECOND IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHILE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BACKED WITHIN
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR VALUES FOR
A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER SUNSET AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES REDUCING POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED
ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 03/15/2006