[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151547
SWODY1
SPC AC 151546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CANADA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN IT/S WAKE...A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS. ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT OF THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARDS THE
WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT.

...PAC NW...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES. COMBINED
WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND CYCLONIC LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW...THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISO-SCT CONVECTION
OFFSHORE OF THE ORE/WA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL RANGES...AS BANDS OF
CONVECTION BEHIND THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WITH ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT.

...SERN TX/WRN LA...
WAA WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS REGION COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CRP/DRT SHOW PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY AIR
AND INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 700 MB. THIS WILL ACT TO INHIBIT
DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD DESPITE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS ON
SRN EXTENT OF CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /PER COMPARISON OF 00Z
AND 12Z TUS SOUNDINGS AND 12Z ELP AND DRT SOUNDINGS/ SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT /09-12Z/ OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION OF A GENERAL THUNDER AREA ATTM.

..CROSBIE/HALES.. 03/15/2006