[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151302
SWODY1
SPC AC 151300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SLOWLY E TO THE GULF OF
ST LAWRENCE TODAY AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN
MOVES E INTO NEB EARLY THURSDAY.  IN THE SRN STREAM...IMPULSE NOW
APPROACHING NRN BAJA SHOULD SHEAR E ACROSS SRN AZ/NM AND REACH
CNTRL/N TX EARLY THURSDAY.

AT LWR LVLS...LEE LOW NOW FORMING OVER THE NRN HI PLNS SHOULD
REDEVELOP E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY...BEFORE REACHING
SRN IA EARLY THURSDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW SHOULD
EXTEND THROUGH SW MO...ERN OK AND W CNTRL TX BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...SRN/ERN TX AND LA...
WARM ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE OVER 
SRN TX TODAY...AND ACROSS E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY TONIGHT. 
SECONDARY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
WILL ENHANCE UPLIFT/ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND
NRN/WRN LA EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT YIELD A FEW
AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD.  BUT GIVEN LIMITED
STRENGTH OF FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE SRN STREAM...STRONG CAP THAT
WILL BE PRESENT...AND FACT THAT PRIMARY LOW LVL MASS FLUX WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CROSSING THE CNTRL PLNS...POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER APPEARS LIMITED.

...PAC NW...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A STRONG SPEED MAX ATTM MOVING S FROM VICINITY
OF 47N/158W.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TURN E TOWARD ORE LATER
TODAY...AND SHOULD NEAR THE ORE CST BY 12Z THURSDAY.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
MAY AFFECT CSTL SECTIONS OF ORE/WA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/15/2006