[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150557
SWODY1
SPC AC 150556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART THE ERN U.S. TODAY WITHIN PROGRESSIVE
FLOW REGIME AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
STATES.  UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON TRANSLATING
ENEWD TOWARD THE ERN DAKOTAS/MID MO RIVER VALLEY.  AS THIS OCCURS...
SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE FROM ERN CO TRACKING INTO KS THIS AFTERNOON.
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SPREAD EWD...EXTENDING FROM THE
SURFACE LOW IN SRN IA SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO TO CENTRAL OK AND NWRN TX
BY 12Z THURSDAY.

MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPROACHING NRN
BAJA...IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR EWD REACHING THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES
TONIGHT.

...SRN/ERN TX AND LA...
ALTHOUGH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND BROAD ZONE OF WAA WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM...DESTABILIZATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR
NORTH. FARTHER S... MOISTURE RETURN...ALREADY UNDERWAY ALONG THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY...WILL SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS SRN TX
TODAY...REACHING INTO ERN TX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.

SECONDARY LLJ MAX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL TX INTO
NRN LA/AR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH SRN STREAM
IMPULSE RESULTING IN STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ATOP COOL LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...BUT SHOULD NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT. 

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST TODAY.  VERY 
COLD...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS 
LIKELY...BUT LIGHTNING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MARINE LAYER WHERE
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

..PETERS/JEWELL.. 03/15/2006