[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141948
SWODY1
SPC AC 141946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA...

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT BY PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE VALLEY AND
THICKER CONVEYOR SHIFTING ACROSS THE SIERRAS INTO WRN NV.  BENEATH
THE WEAK UPPER VORT...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED WITHIN STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 500
J/KG.  COLD THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITHIN
DEEPER CLOUD ELEMENTS...HOWEVER HAIL SIZES SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY
SEVERE AT BEST DUE TO MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OBSERVED.  STRONG
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 30 KT AND WILL APPROACH
THE COAST BY 00Z.  THIS MAY INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF JET AXIS.

...SERN U.S...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL BUT MOVED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE
TRAILING CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT IS SHALLOW...PARTIALLY DUE
TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AMID POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.  THUNDERSTORM
THREAT IS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 03/14/2006