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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 102006
SWODY1
SPC AC 102005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...OZARKS/MID MS VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS REGION WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT OVER WCNTRL TX.
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S F ARE ADVECTING NWD ACROSS ECNTRL TX AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE MOVES INTO NE TX AND SE OK THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NE TX THIS EVENING SHOW MUCAPE VALUES
INCREASING INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 50 KT. THIS WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEW MODEL RUNS SUGGEST. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. THE
HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND EXPANDS
NEWD. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF HAIL REPORTS APPEAR MOST LIKELY
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM FORT WORTH TX ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO FAR SE MO.

...TN VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
ACROSS EAST TX. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS
LA...MS AND AL TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTS NWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 03Z TO 06Z SHOW
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN CNTRL MS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 50 TO 60 KT. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DISCRETE
STORMS ALTHOUGH MULTICELLS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AS AN MCS DEVELOPS
AND MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE MCS MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE
07Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME.

...CA COAST/SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SPREADING SEWD ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...STEEP
LAPSE MID LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A FEW HAIL
STORMS BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS OVERNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 03/10/2006