[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141617
SWODY1
SPC AC 141616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST TUE MAR 14 2006

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAJOR TROUGH MOVES OFF E COAST BY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM DEEP LOW OVER QUEBEC SWD THRU SRN NEW ENGLAND THEN SWWD
FROM ERN CAROLINAS INTO NERN GULF OF MEXICO

IN THE WRN U.S. A COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATE TODAY WITH
SOME WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT.
WELL DEFINED COMMA CLOUD NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY OFF CA COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBS OF HAIL IN NRN/CENTRAL CA W OF SIERRAS THRU 
THIS EVENING GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE VORT/SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AIR
MASS IS COLD WITH 7-8C/KM LAPSE RATES. ONLY MINIMAL CAPE EXPECTED
TODAY GIVEN THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS...HOWEVER WITH SOME HEATING IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE NOW CROSSING THE SIERRAS...200-300 J/KG
COULD DEVELOP SACRAMENTO/NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS BY MID DAY. 
ADDITIONALLY SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
OF THESE STORMS WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 03/14/2006