[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141255
SWODY1
SPC AC 141254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST TUE MAR 14 2006

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SWRN QUEBEC WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY...WHILE A
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS MOVING INLAND...BUT WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE.

...NC/SC/GA...
AROUND SUNRISE...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR DAN TO DHN AND
SHOULD BE MOSTLY OFFSHORE BY 18Z. DESPITE MORNING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S...
12Z OBSERVED AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...MUCAPE VALUES FROM 100 TO 300 J/KG...WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES. SINCE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING
...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD NOT DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. ALSO...OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOW THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE VEERED TO 
WLY...INDICATING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS WEAK. THEREFORE...
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL.

...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
A 70 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL CA INTO NV
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND. NORTH OF THE JET AXIS
...500 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -28C TO -30C WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA. THESE STEEP LAPSE COMBINED WITH MUCAPES
FROM 200-300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KT MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL.

..IMY/GRAMS.. 03/14/2006