[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 110101
SWODY1
SPC AC 110059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN OK AND NERN
TX INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN TN VALLEY...

A WARM FRONT MARKED BY A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDS FROM S
CNTRL AL WWD THROUGH CNTRL MS...NRN LA AND INTO NERN TX WHERE IT
INTERSECTS A DRYLINE. S OF THE WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL
ADVECT NWD TONIGHT WITH MOST PRONOUNCED THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT. A FEW STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
ZONE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM S CNTRL MS
EWD INTO W CNTRL AL. HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP
FARTHER W INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...AND THETA-E ADVECTION AND STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.
ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.


...NERN TX AND SERN OK...

AN ISOLATED STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE RED RIVER ALONG
THE TX/OK BORDER JUST NE OF GAINSVILLE. THIS STORM HAS DEVELOPED
WHERE MIXING HAS WEAKENED THE CAP ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
50S. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO WITH
A THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO DECOUPLE AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES IT MAY BECOME
DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN SURFACE BASED STORMS.

..DIAL.. 03/11/2006