[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101644
SWODY1
SPC AC 101642

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...
ONGOING BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES AT MIDDAY WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST ORIENTED AXIS...ALONG EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM
SOUTH/EAST OF MOBILE AL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GA. WHILE SOME ISOLD
SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH THESE ONGOING TSTMS...PRIMARY SEVERE
POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WITHIN PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION/GULF MOISTURE INFLUX
REGIME FROM SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

INITIAL DEVELOPMENT/THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAREST THE GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...NAMELY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AL/MS AND ERN
LA...WITH DEVELOPMENT NORTHWARD ACROSS REMAINDER OF AL/MS AND AR
INTO TONIGHT. KINEMATICS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLD TORNADOES POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

...OZARKS AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING INVOF THE OZARKS REGION...AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY VIA BROAD 50 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL
JET.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES.

..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 03/10/2006