[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 110557
SWODY1
SPC AC 110555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT
LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ERN THIRD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. ONE SUCH IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO MN SATURDAY. COLD
FRONT TO SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY
IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. THE DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM CNTRL TX NWD
THROUGH E CNTRL OK AND INTO SERN KS WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT WITH THE
SEWD ADVANCING FRONT.



...ERN PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES AREAS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY RESULTING IN RAPID ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY THIS PERIOD. ONE
BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY DURING THE DAY. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WITH
SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...DESTABILIZATION
WILL OCCUR AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECT NWD UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE
RATES. MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. STORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG DRYLINE
FROM PARTS OF IA SWWD INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX. OTHER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS CAP WEAKENS. DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
THE LOW JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. TORNADO
THREAT COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY LEFT OVER FROM MORNING STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS IT ADVANCES EWD WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE OH VALLEY.
PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.


...CNTRL THROUGH SRN CA...

COLD AIR ALOFT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL
THROUGH SRN CA THROUGH SATURDAY UNDERNEATH LARGE UPPER TROUGH. MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND AS AFTERNOON HEATING
COMMENCES...MUCAPES TO 500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH SATURDAY. SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER SRN CA ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR A THREAT OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS.
ISOLATED HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..DIAL/GRAMS.. 03/11/2006