[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 100100
SWODY1
SPC AC 100058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS SWD INTO AL/GA...

...TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS SWD INTO AL AND GA...

AT 0030Z...SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EWD AT 50-55 KT THROUGH KY/ERN
TN AND ERN AL. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PER EVENING SOUNDINGS...
STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW LOCATED IN SRN
MO...PLUS EXTREMELY INTENSE WIND FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WIND
DAMAGE ALONG THE FAST MOVING LINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE WIND THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE STRONGER FORCING
SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE FORCED LINE MOVES INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

UNDER THE MO UPPER LOW...500 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -20C TO 22C AND 
DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDED FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL...WIND AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SERN MO/WRN KY NWRN TN/SRN IL THIS EVENING...
REFERENCE WW 54. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING...ACCOMPANYING
PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MAINTENANCE OF A
MOIST BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A WIND THREAT...AND POSSIBLY
A SMALL TORNADO THREAT...AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SWRN OH BY LATE
TONIGHT.

..IMY.. 03/10/2006