[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 092007
SWODY1
SPC AC 092006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
0206 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE LWR/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTL GULF COAST NORTH
INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...

...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...

EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE ONGOING AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MDT RISK
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST.  A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR MASS POSITIONED JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT S/W TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.  DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES...EVIDENT BY LARGE LOW LVL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/0-1KM
SRH GRTR THAN 300 M2 S-2/AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 KTS...THE
TORNADO THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR DUE TO THE LINEAR MODE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE MDT RISK.  HOWEVER...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS WELL
AS LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A RISK OF TORNADOES.  IN ADDITION...MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE
MODE HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER SOUTHER/EASTERN LA DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND THESE STORMS MAY POSE A TORNADO RISK AS WELL. 
OTHERWISE...STRONG LOW/MID LVL WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.  AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...S/W
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY EJECT TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN SVR WX THREAT
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

...EASTERN OK/NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO...

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MID LVL AIRMASS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOP CONVECTION.  IN ADDITION...VERY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT AN ORGANIZED SVR RISK IN THE
FORM OF LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THIS
REGION.

..AFWA.. 03/09/2006