[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 082002
SWODY1
SPC AC 082001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND OZARKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL DEEPEN
AND AMPLIFY...MOVING EWD INTO THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WEST TX WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS OK AND ERN KS AHEAD
OF A DRYLINE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE
AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. PROFILERS FROM CNTRL OK TO ERN KS
CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 70 KT WHICH COMBINED
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DISCREET HAVING A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE BAND OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAPID INITIATION OF STORMS
AS THE DRYLINE SWEEPS EWD INTO ERN OK...NE TX AND WRN AR. SEVERE
EVENT COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME WITH A
LINEAR MCS DEVELOPING. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH A FEW
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOW
ECHOES ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA TONIGHT.

FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS MO AND IL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS
NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY
WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE LIKELY THREATS
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY NEAR
OR AHEAD OF A SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MO AND IL
OVERNIGHT.

...CO/NE NM/OK PANHANDLE...
A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CO AND NE NM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG THE AXIS OF A
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL.
THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
ACROSS THE AREA.

...PACIFIC NW COAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL AMPLIFY AND APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL
FORECASTS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL AREAS. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL
SEVERE STORM MAY DEVELOP...COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 03/08/2006