[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 090058
SWODY1
SPC AC 090057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
TX...ERN/SRN OK EXTREME SERN KS/NWRN AR AND SWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN CO INTO SRN NM AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD INTO WRN OK/TX BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NEWD OUT OF
THIS TROUGH ACROSS WRN TX THIS EVENING. A 90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET...
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SWRN TX INTO
ERN OK OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER SWRN TX ARE LIKELY
REFLECTIVE OF THE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING INTO THAT
REGION.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM NRN TX
NEWD INTO IA AND THESE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET MAX EJECT NEWD.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 55-75 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER O3Z ACROSS NRN TX/ERN
OK/SERN KS AND MO AS LARGE SCALE LIFTING STRENGTHENS AS A DRYLINE/
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ERN KS SWWD INTO WRN TX...
BEGINS MOVING EWD. STRONG VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER 1 TO 3 KM WOULD
SUPPORT TORNADOES IN CELLULAR STORMS...AND ONE OR TWO OF THE
TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO EXTREME
NWRN AR AND SWRN MO.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THE FORCING BECOMES MORE LINEAR LATER TONIGHT 
AS THE WINDS ALOFT BACK AND BECOME MORE SLY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
STORMS EVOLVING INTO A LINE AND THEN MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD AS A
LINEAR MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE MODERATE RISK
AREA.

FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS SERN IA AND IL...50-60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET
 LIFTING NWD OVER A WARM FRONT IN NRN MO/SRN IL MAY RESULT IN
ELEVATED STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL.

..IMY.. 03/09/2006