[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081626
SWODY1
SPC AC 081624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF ERN OK/WRN AR/NERN
TX AND NWRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS NEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AS A POTENT S/WV TROUGH AND STRONG
JET MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES THIS AM OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
TONIGHT.  CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS WITH COLD
FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD INTO SRN CO. DRY LINE FROM SURFACE LOW TRAILS
SWWD INTO WRN OK AND SWRN TX.  SRN ROCKIES TROUGH ENTERS PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PROVIDING INCREASING LARGE SCALE UPWARD
MOTION AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS. CURRENT SURFACE
LOW KS CONTINUES ENEWD ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE THRU MID MS VALLEY
WHILE A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT ACROSS SRN OK IN RESPONSE
TO APPROACH OF STRONG TROUGH.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD E OF
DRY LINE THRU SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY NWD TO MID MS VALLEY. STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL ENHANCE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AS WELL AS PROVIDING A CAP ON SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY.
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO AS CURRENT ACTIVE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
MID MS VALLEY WILL STEADILY EVOLVE INTO MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS
ALONG  AND JUST S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH
MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000 J/KG OR GREATER FROM MO SWWD INTO NRN TX
DURING AFTERNOON ALONG WITH FAVORABLY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES FOR
ROTATING STORMS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS CAP
WEAKENS...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
VICINITY DRY LINE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE GREATEST POTENTIAL
INITIALLY...HOWEVER GIVEN SHEAR ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS
VERY POTENT LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS/KINEMATICS SET UP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SRN OK. WITH LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 60 PLUS KTS ERN TX INTO AR...80-100KT MID LEVEL
JET ROTATING EWD ACROSS TX...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME VERY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FROM
ERN OK INTO N TX. SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INTENSE WIND PROFILES AND AVAILABILITY OF RICH GULF AIR MASS.
ADDITIONALLY A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE WITH POTENTIAL OF STRONG TORNADOES.

ERN PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO MDT
RISK...PRIMARILY FOR THE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO DAY 2.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/08/2006