[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081305
SWODY1
SPC AC 081304

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MO VLY INTO THE
SRN PLNS AND OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR TROUGH NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY APPEARS TO HAVE NEARLY REACHED
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE.  IT SHOULD TURN MORE E/SE ACROSS AZ/NM TODAY
BEFORE ENTERING THE SRN PLNS EARLY THURSDAY.  WHILE THE STRONGEST
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE SRN PLNS LATE TONIGHT/
EARLY THURSDAY...EWD PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM AND THERMAL GRADIENT
AHEAD OF IT SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT KS/OK AND WRN/NRN TX BY AFTERNOON.

AT LWR LVLS...LOW NOW OVER CNTRL KS SHOULD MOVE NE TO NEAR KCHI BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER SE CO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR TROUGH. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY E/SE ACROSS OK TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...EXPECT DRY
LINE TO MIX WELL E ACROSS SRN KS AND INTO CNTRL OK TODAY... BEFORE
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR KCNU TO KOKC TO KSPS THIS
EVENING.  COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SE INTO CNTRL OK AND NW TX THURSDAY
MORNING.

...MO/IL/IND...
CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE ON NOSE OF 45-55 KT SWLY LLJ.  THIS JET SHOULD DEVELOP ENEWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL KS. 
ASSOCIATED TONGUE OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS.  THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
MO/SRN IA AND IL TODAY...AND IND/SRN OH EARLY THURSDAY.

...EXTREME NE KS/NRN MO SWWD INTO OK/NW AR AND NRN TX...
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST IN
WARM SECTOR N OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..WITH
DEWPOINTS REACHING IN THE UPR 50S IN ERN KS/WRN MO...AND THE LOW 60S
IN SE OK.  NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING... WEAK MID
LVL COOLING...AND CONVERGENCE INVOF KS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NW MO OR EXTREME NE KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER
STORMS MAY FORM BY EARLY EVENING SWD ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE/TROUGH
INTO SE KS/CNTRL OK AND POSSIBLY NW TX.  SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER
KG/ AND 50-60 KT DEEP SHEAR.  ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY
ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT INVOF KS/MO SURFACE WAVE.  STRENGTH OF DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES  DURING THE EARLY STAGES
OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OK/NW TX.

BACKING MID LVL FLOW AND RAPID INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE
QUASILINEAR CLUSTERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY OVER CNTRL/SRN
MO...ERN OK AND NW AR. WITH DEEP LAYER SWLY SHEAR INCREASING TO AOA
60 KTS...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR HIGH
WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

FARTHER S...A LOW PROBABILITY WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM SE MO/NE AR SWWD INTO NE TX...IN ZONE
OF INCREASING LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS.  VERY STRONG /60 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N
/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ SUGGEST A THREAT FOR EARLY MORNING
TORNADOES...IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP IN MODERATELY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.  IF THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE
CERTAIN LATER TODAY...PARTS OF ERN OK/AR AND PERHAPS NE TX MAY
REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS. 

...SE CO/SW KS/OK-TX PNHDL RGN...
MID LVL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH E/NELY LOW LVL
WINDS/WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS OVER SRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL HI PLNS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SE INTO WRN/CNTRL  OK AND NW
TX THURSDAY MORNING.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/08/2006