[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071956
SWODY1
SPC AC 071955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
N-S BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VLY AHEAD OF A WEAK LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING
THROUGH THE PLAINS.  ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS NRN MO OR SRN IA THROUGH LATE AFTN...BUT IT
APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION
HAS DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE HEART OF THE PLAINS.  GIVEN PASSAGE OF
THE LEAD WAVE...UVV WAS WEAKENING ACROSS THE DRYLINE SITUATED FROM
CNTRL KS SWWD TO ALONG THE OK/PNHDL TX BORDER AT 18Z.  THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT HEATING AND DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL BE NEEDED FOR TSTM
INITIATION.  INSOLATION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OWING TO A
STANDING WAVE CI CANOPY.  STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
SWRN-CNTRL OK AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE.

THERE ARE CONFLICTING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.  BEST AGREEMENT IS FOR TSTMS TO INITIATE BY EARLY EVE
ACROSS SCNTRL-ERN KS WHERE CINH WILL WEAKEN THE FASTEST AND WHERE
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL OCCURRING. BUT... WRF-NMM AND
NAM-PARALLEL RUNS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER S IN OK 03-06Z
IN ADDITION TO THE EARLIER TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SCNTRL KS.

GIVEN THAT THE NEXT LOW-AMPLITUDE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE IS NOT PROGD
TO ARRIVE IN THE TX PNHDL UNTIL AFTER 06Z...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT THE TSTM THREAT INTO WRN OK WILL REMAIN ISOLD AT BEST.  IT
IS ALSO REASONABLE TO EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN SCNTRL KS THIS EVE
AND EXPAND NEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN MO OVERNIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL ANYWHERE STORMS FORM ACROSS KS/OK.  THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO ACROSS SCNTRL KS OR EXTREME NCNTRL OK
THIS EVENING...BUT LESS-THAN IDEAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES
WOULD ARGUE AGAINST TORNADOES. MOREOVER...TSTMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
ELEVATED WITH TIME OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING A HAIL THREAT.

..RACY.. 03/07/2006