[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 080057
SWODY1
SPC AC 080055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL
AND ERN KS...WRN MO AND NERN OK...

...KS/MO...

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING
OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A
SECONDARY...WEAKER IMPULSE ALSO APPEARS TO BE PRESENT OVER CNTRL
NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD OVERNIGHT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ERN CO
WITH INVERTED FRONT EXTENDING NEWD TO SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
SD.  A WARM FRONT STRETCHED SEWD THROUGH ERN NEB AND THEN EWD
THROUGH CNTRL MO...WHILE DRYLINE STRETCHED FROM CNTRL KS TO FAR WRN
OK INTO SWRN TX.

IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS HAVE INHIBITED
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OK/KS DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THESE FACTORS INCLUDE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL
RIDGING...CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-CLOUDINESS AND THE RESULTANT
MAINTENENCE OF A STRONG CAP ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS /REFERENCE
08/00Z OUN/FWD SOUNDINGS/.  THIS CAP WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY WITH NEWD
EXTENT INTO NERN KS WHERE TOP SOUNDING INDICATED LITTLE OR NO
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH A MUCAPE OF 1000 J/KG FOR A PARCEL BASED
AROUND 850 MB.

LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY ELEVATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 03-06Z OVER ERN
KS INTO WRN MO...PERHAPS AS SWLY LLJ RE-FOCUSES WWD OVER OK/KS IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING WEAKER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF NM. 
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON
REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST MUCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...SWRN TX...

TSTM WHICH DEVELOPED OVER PECOS COUNTY EARLIER HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...LIKELY AS IT MOVED E OF THE
LOCAL AREA THAT SUPPORTED IT/S INITIATION.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE 08/00Z DRT SOUNDING
SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE CAP AROUND 780 MB...WHICH IS LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO THIS STORM/S DEMISE.  NO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
IS ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. 
THEREFORE...NO THUNDER PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED.

..MEAD.. 03/08/2006