[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071642
SWODY1
SPC AC 071641

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FROM WRN OK INTO CENTRAL/SE KS....

...KS/OK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN INITIAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS.  A DEVELOPING WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT WEAK
INSTABILITY BASED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND AN ASSOCIATED THREAT
FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM ERN KS/WRN MO NWD AND NEWD IN
ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
POSE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WRN MO INTO
IA.  

FARTHER S...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD FROM TX ACROSS
CENTRAL/WRN OK TO SRN KS.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 78-82 F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM NW TX ACROSS WRN OK INTO S
CENTRAL KS.  REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME WARMING WILL
OCCUR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ABOVE THE DEVELOPING MOISTURE
AXIS...AND THAT SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE IN KS/OK.  LOCAL
DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE THE ONLY
APPRECIABLE SUPPORTING FACTORS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...GIVEN
THAT THE HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS LARGELY N OF THE
UNSTABLE SURFACE WARM SECTOR BY MID AFTERNOON. A GREATER CHANCE
STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM
CENTRAL KS SWD INTO NRN OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NOCTURNAL
LLJ...AND AS A WEAK SUBTROPICAL WAVE /NOW NEAR BAJA CA/ APPROACHES
FROM THE SW IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH WIND
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS A
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT EVOLVE OVERNIGHT.  THE TORNADO THREAT IS IN
QUESTION GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE NOCTURNAL AND
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/07/2006