[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071258
SWODY1
SPC AC 071257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD WRN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS PERIOD AS
STRONG UPSTREAM SYSTEM CROSSES THE GULF OF ALASKA.  LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MT TO ERN UT SHOULD MOVE NE ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE PLNS TODAY...WITH TAIL END GRAZING WRN AND NRN
KS.  MAIN UPSTREAM IMPULSE IN THE SAME BRANCH OF FLOW IS ATTM JUST
OFF THE SRN ORE/NRN CA CST.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD DIG SE TO NEAR KLAS
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  FARTHER S...SATELLITE DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING SRN
STREAM IMPULSE ABOUT 500 MILES SW OF NRN BAJA CA.  THIS FEATURE IS
NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN THE MODELS BUT EXTRAPOLATION WOULD TAKE IT INTO
WRN NM THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS SRN KS TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT LWR LEVELS...EXPECT THAT LEE LOW NOW OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS WILL
SLOWLY DEEPEN AND CONSOLIDATE OVER NW KS WHILE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD UPR DISTURBANCE SETTLES SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS.  FARTHER
S...DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH SHOULD MIX E INTO W CNTRL KS AND INTO THE ERN
OK/TX PANHANDLES AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SPREADS NWD FROM THE RED
RVR VLY INTO MUCH OF KS/WRN AR AND...BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WRN MO.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
MORNING RAOB AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE IS RETURNING NWD
ATTM IN A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LAYER ACROSS OK AND KS.  MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NOW PRESENT S OF A KTYR/KABI LINE MAY SPREAD N
OF THE RED RVR BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION E OF DRY
LINE/LEE TROUGH IN NW TX/WRN AND CNTRL OK AND CNTRL KS TODAY... WITH
MLCAPE LIKELY INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DESPITE CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS.  CAPPING WILL...HOWEVER... LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT IN
AREAS OF LOCALIZED ASCENT.

WHILE BOTH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF TX/OK AND KS...LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK.  THE NW HALF OF KS WILL BE
GLANCED BY PASSING NRN STREAM IMPULSE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...BUT
REGION MAY EXPERIENCE NEUTRAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE
UVV IN WAKE OF TROUGH. FARTHER S...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT
APPEARS EVEN MORE LIMITED THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH BY EARLY
EVENING THE PANHANDLES REGION MAY EXPERIENCE WEAK UPLIFT AS SRN
STREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LIMITED...DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE LOCALIZED ASCENT FROM NW TX TO VICINITY OF DEEPENING LOW IN
NW KS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE IN KS...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR
SURFACE LOW BENEATH COMPARATIVELY COOLER AIR ALOFT.  MORE ISOLATED
STORMS MAY FORM ALONG DRYLINE IN WRN OK/NW TX. DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
AREA WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON STRONG HEATING AND DRYLINE
CIRCULATIONS TO OVERCOME CAP.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN 45-55
KTS OF DEEP-LAYER WSWLY SHEAR...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL.  THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
MOIST...RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN BECOME
SUSTAINED/DISCRETE.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NRN AND ERN OK AND CNTRL/ERN KS
AS AFOREMENTIONED SRN BRANCH IMPULSE CONTINUES NE AND LLJ/MOISTURE
INFLOW FURTHER STRENGTHEN.  WHILE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME
ELEVATED AND WILL EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AS THE STORMS MOVE/ DEVELOP NE INTO
PARTS OF MO/NW AR.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/07/2006