[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061628
SWODY1
SPC AC 061626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST MON MAR 06 2006

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PAC COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS NEAR 47 N / 127
W AND 36 N / 124 W...IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PAC COAST FROM
CENTRAL CA NWD TO WRN WA/OR THIS MORNING.  LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS SPREADING
INLAND...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN BY EARLY TONIGHT...WHERE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED/SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL PERSIST IN CONJUNCTION WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

...ERN OK AREA LATE TONIGHT...
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY...WHILE THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL ACROSS E
TX LATER TODAY.  GIVEN ONLY WEAK/SHALLOW ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TODAY...THE CAP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ERN OK...IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING
L0W-LEVEL WAA AND WEAK INSTABILITY BASED NEAR 850 MB.

...CAROLINAS TONIGHT...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS OF LATE
MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY/APPALACHIANS.  THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED THIS
AREA...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT WITH THE SECOND TROUGH
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/06/2006