[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061249
SWODY1
SPC AC 061247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST MON MAR 06 2006

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE THE W CST ACROSS THE
GRT BASIN TO THE CNTRL/NRN RCKYS THIS PERIOD AS TROUGH NOW OFF THE
CA CST MOVES ONSHORE AND ASSOCIATED UPR LOW LIFTS NE INTO BC.  
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHOULD PROGRESS FROM THE RCKYS TO THE MS VLY...
WHILE UPR LOW NOW OVER WI DROPS SE TO THE NC CST.

AT LWR LEVELS...LOW NOW OVER SC SHOULD MOVE E/SE OFF THE NC CST
BEFORE DEEPENING LATER TONIGHT AS UPR IMPULSE ARRIVES FROM WI. 
TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW WILL DROP SE ACROSS GA TODAY AND INTO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...WHILE WRN PART BEGINS TO REFORM NWD
AS A WARM FRONT IN TX/OK.  FARTHER NW...LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE HI PLNS AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC SYSTEM
REACHES THE RCKYS TUESDAY MORNING.

...INTERMOUNTAIN RGN THRU PERIOD...
INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL 
LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ASHORE IN NRN CA. 
THIS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY
AS IT CONTINUES E/NE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY THE NRN
RCKYS. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVER
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN WAKE OF FRONT OVER THE PAC NW AND
THE WRN/NRN GRT BASIN. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
THREAT.

...E CNTRL INTO SE TX THIS AFTN...
MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP WITH
SURFACE HEATING OVER SE AND E CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND SW
OF STALLING FRONT.  SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT...AND FACT THAT BOUNDARY
WILL BE BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP N DURING THE PERIOD... SUGGEST THAT
CONVERGENCE ALONG FEATURE WILL BE BOTH SHALLOW AND WEAK.  IN
ADDITION...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT 850-600 MB LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...LIMITING LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.  WHILE A FEW BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY FORM OVER REGION FOLLOWING MAX
HEATING...AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS SHOULD MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED TSTMS.  

...NC/SC THIS EVENING...
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN OVER SC AND SRN NC
TODAY AS SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW PASSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS
CONTINUES EWD. ASCENT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM TRACKS SE FROM WI.  COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT NEAR THE
SC/NC BORDER...SETUP MAY SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
BOUNDARY EARLY TONIGHT.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

...KS/OK EARLY TUESDAY...
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KTS FROM W TX TO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE STRONGEST WAA
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG DEVELOPING NW/SE- ORIENTED
850 MB FRONT ACROSS KS/OK...WHERE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INFLUX MAY
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS LATE IN THE PERIOD. 
SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE OF 500-700 J/KG.  THIS
THREAT...HOWEVER...APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 03/06/2006