[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060518
SWODY1
SPC AC 060517

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 PM CST SUN MAR 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD AS TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR ERN
PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL CONCURRENTLY BUILD EWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE MID/UPPER-LOW
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACCELERATES SEWD TO ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE
CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM
THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS EVENING. 
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH FL AND THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY...INITIALLY STALLED ACROSS
CNTRL TX...WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
PRESSURE FALLS ON BACKSIDE OF EWD-MIGRATING RIDGE AXIS. 

FARTHER TO THE W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING EWD INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...INTERMOUNTAIN W...

INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF ERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT AND ANY OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. 
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST AS INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED.

...KS/OK...

LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-50 KT SLY LLJ
TONIGHT FROM W TX TO THE DAKOTAS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WAA
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL OCCUR ALONG RETREATING NW-SE ORIENTED 850
MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS KS/OK WHERE A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MUCAPES OF 500-700 J/KG.  THIS THREAT IS TOO LIMITED ATTM TO WARRANT
INCLUSION OF LOW PROBABILITIES.

...NC/SC/GA...

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS OVER TN/MS/AL WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG SRN FRINGE OF
STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD/SEWD
TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.  HERE TOO...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO
LIMITED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 03/06/2006