[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 041631
SWODY1
SPC AC 041629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST SAT MAR 04 2006

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
HI PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPACT UPR LOW NOW OVER ERN ID EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE INTO ERN MT
LATER TODAY...BEFORE TURNING MORE E ACROSS ND TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. 
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WY/CO SHOULD LIFT NE INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING.  IN THE SRN STREAM...AN IMPULSE ATTM OVER
THE LWR CO VLY EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE INTO CO/NM EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE
CONTINUING E ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EARLY SUNDAY.

AT LWR LEVELS...LEE LOW NOW OVER SE MT WILL DRIFT NE INTO WRN ND
WHILE APPROACH OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE INDUCES MODEST SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH IN NE CO/NW KS.  THE LATTER FEATURE
SHOULD TRACK E/NE INTO SE NEB BY 12Z SUNDAY.

...SRN HI PLNS...
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE SRN
HI PLNS TODAY. BUT SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF ERN NM/W TX AND THE WRN PORTION THE TX PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR/MIX EWD.  PERSISTENT SELY
COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MODEST SUPPLY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S.  WEAK UPSLOPE/CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG
LEE TROUGH...AND APPROACH OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE...MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN NM AND
PERHAPS PARTS OF SW TX LATER TODAY.  WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
500 J/KG IN HEATED AREAS AND DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS...SETUP
COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

...CNTRL HI PLNS...
SURFACE HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN
CO/WRN KS AND SW NEB TODAY...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED ATTM.  BUT 12Z KAMA RAOB WITH +8 C DEWPOINT AND 40 KT SLY
LLJ SUGGESTS THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW KS/SW NEB BY LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. 
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY TAIL END OF
NRN STREAM TROUGH...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
INVOF LEE LOW BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCLUDE A FEW
ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND GIVEN
40+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD E IN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
ZONE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NEB AND KS TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/04/2006