[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 041240
SWODY1
SPC AC 041238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST SAT MAR 04 2006

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER SRN ID THIS AM WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS ERN
MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SRN CANADA TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.

SURFACE LOW WY WITH COLD FRONT SWWD INTO WRN AZ. LOW MOVES NEWD INTO
WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON AND A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN LEE TROUGH
OVER ERN CO. COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS DURING
EVENING WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE DEVELOPING SWD THRU WRN NEB/KS
THEN SSWWD VICINITY ERN NM/TX BORDER.

CURRENTLY STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE GULF
MOISTURE PRIMARILY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS FAR N AS SRN NE AS
EVIDENCED BY ACTIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION LAST SEVERAL HOURS CENTRAL
KS/SRN NE.

WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW CONTINUING...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO AOA 50F AS FAR N AS WRN
KS BY THIS EVENING. COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WILL
SPREAD EWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS  DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
HAVE INCREASED THE THREAT OF SEVERE NWD INTO WRN KS/SWRN NEB FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE MOISTURE
RETURN AND COOLING ALOFT...SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION 
LIKELY VICINITY SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE.  ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 50KTS ALONG WITH A VEERING PROFILE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
STORM ROTATION...THE MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD OVERNIGHT SRN NE/NRN KS
WITH ENHANCED LIFT FROM APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
FROM THE W.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS....
WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT VICINITY ERN NM/TX BORDER
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT HEATING TO WEAKEN
THE CAP.  CURRENT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD SHIFT EWD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 70F ERN NM. 
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID 50S AND PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREAT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE
EVENING HOURS.

..HALES.. 03/04/2006