[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011629
SWODY1
SPC AC 011628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST WED MAR 01 2006

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH VALLEY AREA...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
ESEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. SLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
TN AND OH VALLEYS. RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION WITH MARGINAL MUCAPE POSSIBLE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY N
OF E-W BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY.  

...SWRN U.S....

LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE SWRN
STATES. PERSISTENT ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL MID LEVEL
MOISTENING...AND LAPSE RATES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MARGINAL
MUCAPE DESPITE VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ELEVATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.



...PACIFIC NW THROUGH NWRN CA...

LIGHTNING DATA SHOW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION WITHIN
A FRONTAL BAND FROM OFF THE WA COAST SWD TO OFF THE CA COAST.
NRN PORTION OF THIS FRONTAL BAND MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD AS
LEAD IMPULSE EJECTS NWD INTO WRN CANADA. HOWEVER...SECONDARY IMPULSE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC
WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO NRN CA. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER NRN CA INTO SWRN OR AS FRONTAL BAND MOVES INLAND AS STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE IMPULSE SPREADS INLAND LATER TONIGHT.

..DIAL.. 03/01/2006