[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011241
SWODY1
SPC AC 011240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST WED MAR 01 2006

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH VALLEY AREA TONIGHT...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...AND THEN ESEWD OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE
NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER WILL DEVELOP EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT.  A MODIFYING AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD/NEWD IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS CYCLONE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 F
FROM ERN OK SWD ACROSS E TX.  THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NEWD TO THE
MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER PLUME WILL GENERALLY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT SW OF THE SURFACE LOW...PERSISTENT WAA/ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO
SATURATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IN/OH.

...PAC NW COAST...
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 135 W WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
NW CA AND WRN OR/WA BY LATE TONIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF CELLULAR CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...WHILE OCEANIC LIGHTNING DETECTION DATA INDICATE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE INITIAL BAROCLINIC BAND NEAR 125
W.  OFFSHORE FLOW OF A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS MAY KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT LARGELY OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT TODAY.  EXPECT
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NW CA AND W OF THE CASCADES IN WA/ORE AS
THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES
SPREAD INLAND.

...SRN ROCKIES...
A SRN STREAM TROUGH...NOW NEAR 30 N AND 120 W...WILL MOVE ENEWD OVER
AZ/NM BY TONIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. 
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING IS NECESSARY BELOW 700 MB TO
SUSTAIN A THUNDERSTORM THREAT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS IN QUESTION...THOUGH ASCENT OVER A SWWD
MOVING COLD FRONT MAY PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT INVOF
ERN NM.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 03/01/2006