[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011956
SWODY1
SPC AC 011955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST WED MAR 01 2006

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE RIDGING IN CENTRAL CONUS
AND TROUGHS OFF E AND W COASTS...WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW PENETRATING MEAN RIDGE
POSITION OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSED MIDLEVEL
LOW TONIGHT ACROSS DAKOTAS/MN BORDER REGION BEFORE MOVING TO UPPER
MS VALLEY.  ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED OVER NWRN MO --
IS FCST TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD OVER IL/INDIANA OVERNIGHT.  TRAILING
COLD FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM LOW SWWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE --
WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS AND MO/AR TONIGHT...REACHING
WRN KY...ARKLATEX AREA...AND LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION BY 2/12Z.

MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL OVER NRN CA AS STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD DAY-2 LANDFALL.  SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER SRN CA/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL EJECT NEWD
TOWARD 4-CORNERS AREA OVERNIGHT.

...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...
INTENSIFYING AND MOISTENING SWLY/WSWLY LLJ IS FCST TONIGHT...WITH
ORIGINS IN PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR MASS TRAJECTORIES FROM WRN GULF. 
AS RH INCREASES IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL AIR TONIGHT...PARCELS WILL BE
ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS
REGION.  GREATEST THUNDER PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE INVOF WNW-ESE
ORIENTED 850 MB WARM FRONT.  RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION
INDICATE UP TO ABOUT 300 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO 4-CORNERS REGION...
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL SHIFT FROM W-E
ACROSS AREA THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  BROAD AREA OF WEAK LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS FCST TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FROM W-E ACROSS AZ AND WRN NM...THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL BE AIDED BY DIABATIC
SFC HEATING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS WELL.  COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL
BE LIMITED BY LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE.  LOW
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS ERN NM AND WRN TX PANHANDLE REGION.  GRADUAL
MOISTENING IN MIDLEVELS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED MUCAPES 100-200 J/KG.


...W COAST...
SCATTERED/EPISODIC TSTMS HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN PORTIONS OF
BAROCLINICALLY ENHANCED CLOUD/CONVECTIVE BAND...NOW APCHG NRN CA/ORE
COAST. TSTM POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER NRN CA AND WRN ORE AS ENHANCED LIFT...ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL ZONE...MOVES INLAND.

..EDWARDS.. 03/01/2006