[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 010604
SWODY1
SPC AC 010602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST WED MAR 01 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE EWD
THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE...CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS AND REACHING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.  AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS
EWD...RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
AHEAD OF SECOND TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD REACH THE W
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS.  STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
LOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER OVER PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY REGION...WHILE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NM...AS WELL AS ALONG THE W
COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...OH VALLEY REGION...
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY...AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL.  HOWEVER...DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THUS SUGGESTING THAT ANY THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. 

...FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN CO/NM...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR OVER THIS REGION AS WEAK SRN
STREAM TROUGH MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE DESERT SW.

...W COAST...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY REACH WRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN CA
NWD INTO COASTAL ORE AND PERHAPS COASTAL WA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE W COAST.

..GOSS/GUYER.. 03/01/2006