[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301957
SWODY1
SPC AC 301955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE
BVE 20 WSW MOB 25 W GZH 15 NNW TOI 40 NNE ATL 10 NNE GSP 25 NNW SOP
15 NE EWN 45 SSW HSE ...CONT... 35 ENE SGJ 55 NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE VRB 45 W FMY
...CONT... 50 SSW 7R4 35 NW ASD 25 SSE JAN 30 NNW JAN 25 SW LLQ 35
NNE ELD 10 SW HOT 15 NNW RUE 30 S FLP 10 WNW JBR 35 WSW DYR 10 E MKL
45 ESE MKL 15 SSW BNA 25 ENE BWG 30 WNW LEX 25 SE LUK 50 SSW CMH 10
SW UNI 15 N HTS 35 SSW HTS 45 SE JKL 20 NNW HSS AVL 25 WSW HKY 50
NNE HKY 30 SSW SHD 40 NE CHO 60 E WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW UIL UIL AST 25
WNW SLE 50 E OTH 40 S MFR 40 NNW RBL 45 SE RBL 35 N SAC 45 WNW SAC
20 S UKI 60 WNW UKI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/NRN FL...

...SRN AL/GA AND NRN FL...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF
-25C TO -30C CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL MCS AND STRONG WIND SHIFT PRECEED THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN GA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TRAILING SEGMENT
OF THE MCS OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM SWRN GA...ACROSS SRN AL...AND THE
WRN FL PNHDL ATTM. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF FORCING HAS BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S
F WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 55-60F.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO INCREASE FROM SRN AL ACROSS
SRN GA AND NRN FL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION. NOSE OF 90-100KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD EAST COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND
SHIFT/COLD FRONT. RESULTANT STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH ATTENDANT
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...SOME HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

...SC/SRN NC...
PREFRONTAL MCS AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL DEVELOP EAST FROM NRN
GA INTO WARM BUT RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS SC AND PARTS OF SRN
NC. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER
FORCING LATER TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD FRONT SURGES EAST. THIS CONVECTION MAY FORM INTO 
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AND COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH A CHANCE OF WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR SHOULD EVOLVE
FROM CNTRL SC ACROSS SERN NC LATER TONIGHT WHERE MOST FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR/FORCING ARE
FORECAST TO CO-EXIST.

...AR...
CU/TCU HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER AR. DESPITE
VERY DRY AIR MASS...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY
MAY BE PRESENT DUE TO VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED
TSTMS COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL/SMALL HAIL
CONSIDERING COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

..CARBIN.. 01/30/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM