[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301611
SWODY1
SPC AC 301609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
SGJ 60 S CTY ...CONT... 25 SSE GPT 20 NW MOB 55 N MOB 40 WNW AUO 40
E RMG 10 NW GSP 30 NNW SOP 15 NNW EWN 30 SSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BPT 15 NNE LFT
55 E MLU 45 W CBM 55 WSW BNA 50 E BWG 50 ESE JKL 25 NE ROA 55 E SBY
...CONT... 30 ENE VRB 45 W FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UIL 25 NW UIL
20 SW AST 20 N SLE 45 NNW MFR 20 NW MHS 40 SE RBL 35 SW TVL 40 E SCK
25 W SCK 50 SE UKI 65 W UKI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GULF COAST  NEWD TO
CAROLINAS...

...SERN STATES...
A VIGOROUS COLD S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OFFSHORE BY 12Z TUE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF TROUGH AND COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO
COASTAL REGIONS AL EWD ACROSS FL AND SRN GA.  ADDITIONALLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH WILL INITIALLY LIMIT AVAILABLE
CONVERGENCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

HOWEVER AS CURRENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DISSIPATES AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 70F SRN AL EWD ACROSS SRN GA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE CURRENT BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN AL.

REF MCD 90.

BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT PARTS SRN GA/NRN FL WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FORECASTED TO BE
AVAILABLE.  THE EXIT REGION OF A 100KT 500 MB WIND MAX WILL BE
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NRN FL THIS EVENING PROVIDING STRONG UPWARD
MOTION/DIVERGENCE.  HAVE INCREASED THE TORNADO PROBABILITIES THIS
AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.

OTHERWISE THE PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE GIVEN THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE INITIALLY
MULTICELLULAR EVOLVING INTO POSSIBLE BOW/LINE SEGMENTS BY THIS
EVENING UNDER THE STRONG FLOW AND UPPER FORCING AS THE TROUGH DRIVES
EWD ACROSS AL/GA.  A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A
MORE WIND DAMAGE CONCERN DURING THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY
EWD ACROSS SC AND POSSIBLY SRN NC.

..HALES.. 01/30/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM