[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301300
SWODY1
SPC AC 301258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
SSI 55 SW CTY ...CONT... 75 SSE HUM MCB 30 SW MEI 20 NNE MGM 40 E
RMG 10 NW GSP 30 NNW SOP 15 NNW EWN 30 SSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BPT 15 NNE LFT
55 E MLU 45 W CBM 55 WSW BNA 50 E BWG 50 ESE JKL 25 NE ROA 55 E SBY
...CONT... 30 ENE VRB 45 W FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UIL 25 NW UIL
20 SW AST 20 N SLE 45 NNW MFR 20 NW MHS 40 SE RBL 35 SW TVL 40 E SCK
25 W SCK 50 SE UKI 65 W UKI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST RGN TO
THE CAROLINA CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THIS
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA CROSSING THE PLAINS STATES
SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN EXISTING TROUGH NOW NEARING THE MID/LWR MS VLY.
 THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY E/NE TO THE NC CST BY 12Z
TUESDAY.

SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE SERN U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL BE COMPLICATED BY EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE N CNTRL/NERN GULF OF MEXICO.
PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND CONFIGURATION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH...SUGGEST THAT RICHER GULF MOISTURE
LIKELY WILL NOT SPREAD ANY FARTHER N/NE THAN THE IMMEDIATE GULF CST
OF SE LA/MS/AL AND NW FL.  NEVERTHELESS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT DEEPENING AND EWD REDEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE NOW
OVER MIDDLE TN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST TO CAROLINAS...
SATELLITE/RADAR DATA SHOW TSTMS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE LA CST.  OTHER WEAKER/
ELEVATED STORMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO FORM INVOF DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT OVER WRN MS.  THESE TRENDS REFLECT ARRIVAL OF STRONG ASCENT IN
EXIT REGION OF LEAD SPEED MAX...AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY AS TROUGH/FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREAD EWD.

INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.  BUT
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MAIN SPEED MAX WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH /IMPULSE NOW OVER OK/ SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A BAND OR TWO OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS OVER MS/AL/GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP COULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS WITH
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE.

ONCE DEVELOPED...FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE MAY CARRY
SEVERE THREAT EWD INTO SC AND SRN NC TONIGHT...WHERE MORE STRONGLY
FOCUSED FORCING FOR ASCENT /ASSOCIATED WITH ASSUMPTION OF NEGATIVE
TILT/ AND INFLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE COULD MAINTAIN A MODEST DEGREE
OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER FLOW WITHIN
OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY SUPPORT FORMATION OF ONE OR TWO
LEFT-SPLIT STORMS THAT POSE A GLANCING THREAT FOR HAIL OVER EXTREME
SE LA. FARTHER N...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLDER
ENVIRONMENT STORMS IN MS.

..CORFIDI.. 01/30/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM