[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 300549
SWODY1
SPC AC 300548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2006

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BPT 15 NNE LFT
PIB 20 NNW TCL 35 NNW HSV 30 SE CSV 35 NE TRI 25 NE ROA 55 E SBY
...CONT... 35 E PBI 40 SW APF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UIL 25 NW UIL
20 SW AST 20 N SLE 45 NNW MFR 20 NW MHS 40 SE RBL 35 SW TVL 40 E SCK
25 W SCK 50 SE UKI 65 W UKI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO ERN TX...WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
ERN STATES.  VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /150+ METERS/ ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS A STRENGTHENING 500 MB JET /90+ KT/
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING BY 12Z TUESDAY OVER THE CAROLINAS.  ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO BE OVER NRN MS AT 12Z TODAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD EWD WITH THE LOW REACHING WRN SC BY 31/00Z.  FAIRLY RAPID
DEEPENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NC
COAST...IN RESPONSE TO EVEN STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS /AROUND 200 METERS
BY 12Z TUESDAY/.

NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW
TODAY TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ACROSS WRN ORE INTO NRN
CA.

...CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION...
DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING AND KINEMATICS WITH THIS DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH...WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE RETURN OF RICH MOISTURE TO INLAND PARTS OF
THE GULF COAST/SERN STATES.  THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF...BUT MAY EXTEND JUST INLAND
ALONG THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION FROM FAR SERN MS EWD TO THE
FL PANHANDLE...AND POTENTIALLY INTO SWRN GA.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS
OF NRN FL...WITH CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY GENERALLY LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION OVER THIS AREA.  MEANWHILE...NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES EWD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST STATES.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO WARRANT AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO GA. 
IF GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND/OR IS EXPECTED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS...THEN PARTS OF THIS REGION COULD REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A
SLIGHT RISK.

..PETERS.. 01/30/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM