[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 300058
SWODY1
SPC AC 300057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2006

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE AAF 25 SSE TLH
25 N GNV 30 SE OCF 40 W PIE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL BIG BEND REGION...
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME
MAY BE SUPPORTED BY AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX
WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THIS REGION INTO NRN FL/SERN
STATES.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE FL BIG BEND REGION LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE EMBEDDED TROUGH TRANSLATES
ENEWD TOWARD NRN FL.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
SRN PLAINS...WILL AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID AND LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NEW ENGLAND HAD DECREASED
ITS EWD PROGRESSION AS IT HAS BECOME PARALLEL TO WSWLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG THE LA COAST HAD BEGUN TO
RETURN NWD DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS SRN MS.  LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.  HOWEVER...A PRIMARILY WLY COMPONENT TO THESE WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL LA/MS
OVERNIGHT.  WEAK WAA ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
FOR THIS REGION.

..PETERS.. 01/30/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM