[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 291936
SWODY1
SPC AC 291934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2006

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE GLS 25 SE ESF
15 W JAN 30 NNE MEI SEM 25 SSW CSG 30 ESE MCN 40 ENE OGB 55 SSW HSE
...CONT... 35 E SGJ 50 S CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PKB 35 WNW UNI
20 WSW CMH 35 SSE FDY 35 NNW MFD 45 WNW ERI 35 SW ROC 20 ESE ELM 35
SW AVP 20 ESE CXY 40 WSW MRB 20 WNW EKN 25 SSW PKB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN STATES...
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON IN SPITE OF A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. A
CONFLUENCE ZONE AT THE SFC EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS FORECAST
TO SHARPEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING MAY
BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL US WILL DIG SEWD SPREADING
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS TX INTO LA TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SEWD INTO LA AND MS LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING ASCENT. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF
INITIATION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER DAYBREAK.

...UPPER OH VALLEY...
A QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS SRN OH AND WRN PA. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS NEWD...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE EWD INTO PA BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 01/29/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM