[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 291631
SWODY1
SPC AC 291629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2006

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW HTS 40 ESE BMG
15 S MIE 45 SE AZO 10 WNW MTC 30 WSW BUF DUJ 20 S PKB 45 WNW HTS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SGJ 50 S CTY
...CONT... 50 SSE BPT 30 SSE POE 35 SW IER 35 WSW MLU 35 SSE GLH 25
NE JAN 25 E MCB 30 ENE MOB 20 NW ABY 15 SE AGS 25 S FLO 40 E CRE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.  STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER
THE OH VLY SHOULD FURTHER DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO UPSTATE NY THIS
EVENING...WHILE UPSTREAM SPEED MAXIMA PHASING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
CARVE A NEW TROUGH OVER THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX REGION.

COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH OH VLY SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E/SE ACROSS THE SERN STATES TODAY.  LEAD
BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY FROM NRN FL WSW INTO THE NRN GULF
EARLY MONDAY.  FARTHER NW...A NEW FRONT SHOULD EVOLVE LATE IN THE
PERIOD OVER THE LWR MS VLY...AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING DISTURBANCE IN THE
PLAINS.

...UPR OH VLY...
LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM FROM COLD UPPER TROUGH.  STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DUE TO SURFACE HEATING MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAKENING OF
UPR SYSTEM TO SPREAD THUNDER INTO WRN PA LATER IN THE DAY.  A FEW
CELLS MAY YIELD SMALL HAIL BEFORE ENCOUNTERING MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.

...SERN STATES/N FL...
PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND HAS MOVED WELL E OF COLD FRONT.  IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SE TODAY.  LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPR FORCING SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED
THUNDER ISOLATED.  THE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY REJUVENATE SOMEWHAT LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY FROM THE NRN GULF ENE ACROSS NRN FL/S GA AND
PERHAPS SRN SC AS AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM TROUGH ENHANCES WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS REGION.

FARTHER W...AN AREA OF NEW CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER MAY DEVELOP
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF LA/MS...IN ZONE OF
INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CLOSER TO APPROACHING TROUGH. 
LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY SEVERE THREAT DESPITE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG CLOUD LAYER SHEAR.

..CORFIDI.. 01/29/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM