[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 290101
SWODY1
SPC AC 290100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
GLS 50 WSW POE 20 SW SHV 45 SW TXK 30 SSE DUA 20 E ADM 35 S CQB 30
WSW FNB 10 NNW FNB 20 NNW CDJ 30 N SGF 30 N RUE 35 WSW BVX 20 SW ARG
35 NNE POF 20 SSE MDH 50 ENE PAH 45 NW MSL 45 NNE MEI 30 NW MOB 55
SE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS
10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S PSX 35 SW CLL 30
SSW ADM 20 N PNC 15 NE CNK 20 W TQE 25 NNE FOD DBQ 25 SSE RAC 35 W
TOL 20 NE LUK 25 WSW TYS 10 SSW LGC 45 WSW AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN PLAINS
TO THE LOWER MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WNWLY FLOW SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW
TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN
PROGRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER 48 STATES.  SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER ERN OK...IS EXPECTED TO PHASE
WITH THE ERN NEB/KS SHORT WAVE TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
REACHING THE LOWER OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS BY 12Z SUNDAY.  AT THE
SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW NOW LOCATED OVER NERN KS WILL DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD NERN IL/NWRN IND OVERNIGHT.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP EWD AND OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED SWD
ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX...AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH TO
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS TO TX COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

PRIND SUGGEST THE COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOCATED
ALONG/BENEATH SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM FROM SRN/ERN TX ACROSS LOWER
MS TO MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.  MODELS INDICATED WEAK DESTABILIZATION
WILL OCCUR EWD OVERNIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /150-180 METERS/ AND
FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE OVER THIS REGION.  IN ADDITION...
STRENGTHENING LLJ ADVECTING GREATER MOISTURE NWD ACROSS LOWER MS TO
THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO AID IN DESTABILIZATION.

...ERN KS/MO/IL/ERN OK/AR/ERN TX...
GREATEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO BE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WHERE A NARROW...BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING/COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE TO LAST SEVERAL MORE
HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO WRN MO/PARTS OF WRN AR
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE INSTABILITY BECOMES TOO WEAK TO SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS.

...LOWER MS TO LOWER TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS...
DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THESE REGIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE LLJ AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
EXTENSIVE REGION OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON REGIONAL RADARS FROM
THE MEM AREA SWD TO LA.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF LLJ AND FAST STORM
MOTIONS...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.  FARTHER
S...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN LA TO
FAR SRN MS WHERE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER.

..PETERS.. 01/29/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM