[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 290552
SWODY1
SPC AC 290550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE PSX VCT 30 SSE
UTS 50 W JAN 35 SE GWO UOX 20 E ARG 35 ENE FAM ALN 25 N SPI 20 NW
BEH 80 NNW ERI 15 E BUF 15 N AOO 30 SSW EKN 15 NNW HSS AVL 35 SE CLT
10 N GSB 50 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45 ESE SGJ 45 W PIE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
U.S. TODAY.  A STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS AT 12Z
SUNDAY WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ALONG THE OH VALLEY TO
NERN STATES.  AN UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME OCCLUDED AS A SECONDARY LOW
FORMS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ERN STATES. 
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OH TO LOWER MS
VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST STATES...
STRONGER FORCING WITH THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION.  THUS...FORCING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME.  AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A BROAD ZONE OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. 
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS SRN AL INTO GA/NRN FL...GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ADVECTING INTO THIS REGION. DESPITE THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR A FEW DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT.  AT THIS TIME...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER
TX COAST NEWD ACROSS LA TO PARTS OF NRN MS/NRN AL AS STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS RESULT IN BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
PLAINS TROUGH AND THE RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THESE AREAS.  ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL
TOWARD 12Z MONDAY INTO NRN AL.

...OH VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AS IT MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -24C
AT 500 MB/ ATOP ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN
ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS.  VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT... BUT
SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 01/29/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM