[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 282016
SWODY1
SPC AC 282015

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
PSX 40 W HOU 25 E CRS 30 SSW MLC 30 WNW TUL 40 WNW EMP 20 N MHK 30
WSW FNB FNB 20 SE STJ 30 SW SZL 25 SSW FLP 25 NNE LIT 30 SSE GLH 30
WNW PIB 50 E BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS
10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BRO 40 SW ALI 15
SE HDO 45 SSW SPS 45 WNW CNK 20 WNW OLU 30 WNW SUX 10 NNW SLB 30 ESE
ALO 10 SW CGX 20 N MIE 25 NNW LEX 25 NE CHA 15 S AUO 45 WSW AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A ZONE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
FROM MO EXTENDING SWD INTO EAST TX IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO LA...ERN AR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH EMBEDDED
CELLS IN THE LINE. AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES EWD BEHIND THE AREA OF
RAIN...NEW CELLS SHOULD INITIATE FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER SWD ACROSS
NE TX. WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE STRONGER CELLS COULD BECOME
SEVERE AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO SRN AR AND LA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE HOUSTON-VICTORIA AREA...A LINE OF
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION IS ONGOING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
SHOWS A POCKET OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH MLCAPE
VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG. AS A RESULT THE LINE MAY INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SE TX. 88D VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT IN THE HOUSTON AREA. THIS
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES MORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ALSO
EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. DUE TO THE
STRONG LIFT WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE LINE SHOULD EXPAND AND MOVE
EWD ACROSS LA INTO SRN MS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
GRADUALLY BECOMING MARGINAL DUE TO THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.

...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRY SLOT ADVANCING NEWD
ACROSS CNTRL OK AND SCNTRL KS WITH CUMULUS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NE KS. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND SFC DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 50S F LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS MAY
INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO SW MO. PROFILERS
CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 50 KT WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IF DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST HAIL WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE.

..BROYLES.. 01/28/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM