[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281634
SWODY1
SPC AC 281632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S
PSX 10 W BAZ 20 SSE FTW 35 WSW ADM 20 SE PNC 25 SE EMP 60 NNE JLN 15
ENE FLP 20 ENE MEM CBM 45 WSW SEM 70 SE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS
10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW 6R6 MAF 60 SSE
CDS 15 ESE GAG 30 E DDC EAR SLB 30 SW ALO CGX FWA LEX CSV ATL CSG 15
SSW PFN 50 SSW PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER E TX/LA INTO PARTS OF
OK/AR/KS AND THE LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
VEE-SHAPED UPR TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS APPEARS TO
HAVE REACHED ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE
ENE TOWARD THE MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS POWERFUL UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE NRN GRT BASIN.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT THAT LOW NOW OVER N CNTRL KS WILL LIKEWISE
ACCELERATE ENEWD...REACHING THE KCHI AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT
TRAILING S FROM THE LOW SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND SURGE E
ACROSS MUCH OF MO/AR AND OK BY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT MOVES E THROUGH E TX/WRN LA.

...SE TX/LA...
OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A NE/SW BAND THAT
ATTM EXTENDS FROM NEAR KTXK TO KAUS.  THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE E
THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE WEAKENING OVER WRN LA THIS EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL HEATING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND...AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK AS MAJOR PORTION OF UPR
TROUGH PASSES BY N OF REGION.  BUT SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW A WEDGE OF MORE STRONGLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
PRESENT W OF WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING SSE INTO THE GULF FROM NEAR
BPT.  THIS AIR SHOULD SPREAD N INTO SE TX THROUGH THE DAY.

COMBINATION OF MODERATE MOISTURE INFLUX /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S/ AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING MAY FOSTER INTENSIFICATION OF CELLS 
IN THE SRN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH
DEEP WLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS ON SRN FRINGE OF EJECTING
TROUGH...SETUP COULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
A COUPLE LEWPS/SMALL BOWS.  A LOW PROBABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE
BAND OVER SE TX AND PERHAPS SW LA.  WHILE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO
WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS.

ACCELERATION OF UPR TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SE TX/WRN LA STORMS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP E INTO MS LATER TONIGHT.  INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE
WEAK /SBCAPE LIKELY AOB 250 J PER KG/...BUT COULD SUPPORT
CONTINUATION OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO REGION FROM THE W.

...N TX/OK/AR/ERN KS...
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WILL EXIST LATER TODAY AHEAD OF LEAD COLD 
FRONT FROM CNTRL/SE KS SWD INTO NE TX. ACCELERATION OF BOUNDARY
...WHICH WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO RECONFIGURATION OF UPPER FLOW
FIELD...WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS LEFT BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.  SURFACE HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.
 BUT AS UPR FLOW VEERS...EXISTING WARM CONVEYOR CLOUD BAND SHOULD BE
SHUNTED MORE RAPIDLY EWD.  THIS MAY ALLOW A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH SHARPENING
FRONT. ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT DO FORM LIKELY WILL BECOME
SUPERCELLS...AS DEEP SHEAR WILL VARY FROM SSWLY AT 35 KTS IN KS TO
WSWLY AT NEARLY 50S KTS IN NE TX.

LIMITED SURFACE AIR MASS RECOVERY AND TIME OF DAY SHOULD OFFSET
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT TO KEEP SEVERE
THREAT FAIRLY ISOLATED AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES E/NE INTO WRN KY/TN
LATE TONIGHT.

..CORFIDI.. 01/28/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM