[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281224
SWODY1
SPC AC 281223

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE
PSX SAT 50 ENE JCT 35 ENE SPS 30 WNW CQB 35 NE CNU 15 NNE SGF 15 WNW
ARG 20 ENE MEM 15 NNE CBM 15 SW MOB 70 SE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS
10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW 6R6 MAF 60 SSE
CDS 15 ESE GAG 30 E DDC EAR SLB 30 SW ALO CGX FWA LEX CSV ATL CSG 15
SSW PFN 50 SSW PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY....
TROUGH CENTRAL/SRN HI PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY TONIGHT AS IT ROTATES ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. WIND FIELDS
AT ALL LEVELS WILL RAMP UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES AND THE SURFACE LOW NOW WRN KS MOVES EWD AND DEEPENS
OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY.

CURRENT LARGE AREA OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM MO SWWD
TO CENTRAL TX SUPPORTED BY A WARM CONVEYER AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AS
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET MAX ROTATES EWD ACROSS SRN TX TO LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ABILITY OF THE
AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING
CONVECTION AS WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND KINEMATICS WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE.  GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS TX INTO OK
THIS AM WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 60F AS FAR N AS THE RED RIVER
NERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND MID/UPPER 50S ERN OK.

AS AREA ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES EWD...THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TIME FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ERN HALF OF
TX NWD INTO OK TO ALLOW MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON WEST EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DRY LINE BY
MID/LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS OK/NRN TX.
WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON VICINITY I35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK INTO NRN TX. WHILE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL THE 30KT OF SFC-1KM SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS WITH HELICITIES 250-350 M2/S2 SHOULD LEAD TO
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY SUPERCELL TORNADOES 
WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE AVAILABLE.

OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND INTENSIFIES
VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES DEVELOP WITH 850MB JET INCREASING TO
60-70KT OVER LWR MS AND WRN TN VALLEY. COUPLED WITH STRONG AND
DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER JET A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
MEAGER AT THE SAME TIME THE GREATEST DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM IS
OCCURRING.  THUS SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF NIGHT
BUT GRADUALLY TRANSITION PRIMARILY INTO A DAMAGING WIND CONCERN.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO WRN MS DURING THE
NIGHT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE
VIGOROUS WIND FIELDS.

..HALES.. 01/28/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM